← Store Championship - Mortal Ambition
Water Ravishing MillTier 1
at Store Championship - Mortal Ambition
decks
2
(12.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
5-5-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.2%
avg ELO +0.6 per match
expected value
51.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1366
· median 1366
· range 1286–1446
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1058
Q1 1174
Q3 1365
1508
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.9% | +3.0 |
| Wind Allies | 12.5% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 50.5% | +0.3 |
| Wind Razorgale | 12.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.1% | -3.1 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.9% | +3.0 |
| Fire Tera Kongming | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
